The average temperature of the planet could explode in the coming years

The average temperature of the planet could explode in the coming years

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In 2019, a study by the CNRS (National Center for Scientific Research) associated with the CEA (Atomic Energy Commission) and Météo-France already reported:an increase in the Earth’s average temperature of 2 degrees Celsius by 2040 and this is regardless of the efforts made to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

The study then went further, estimating that if the various states of the world did not now take various strong measures to counter global warming, the latter could reach an average of 6.5 to 7 degrees Celsius in 2100. This was certainly the most pessimistic scenario, based on economic growth fueled by fossil fuels. But today, A new study seems to corroborate this pessimistic vision..

2100: Between 5 and 7 degrees more on average in the world

This new study by six Dutch researchers, whose results were published two weeks ago, used new modeling techniques toexamine the relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperaturesThe main conclusion to be drawn is this: with the doubling of CO² concentration on the planet since the industrial revolution, the Earth could see its average temperature to increase by 5 to 7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, instead of the 3 degrees Celsius suggested by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).

This paper thus supports the theory that global warming could have an even greater impact than expected, with the Earth eventually becoming a sort of permanent greenhouse.

To quote the paper in question: “When we re-measure each sensitivity as a percentage of Earth’s surface area, our average ECS (Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity) reaches 7.2 degrees Celsius per doubling of CO2, which is much higher than the most recent IPCC estimates of between 2.3 and 4.5 degrees Celsius. This study is also consistent with some of the latest state estimates, which suggest a temperature increase of 5.2 degrees Celsius.“, we can read in conclusion.

What consequences will these sudden temperature changes have?

The consequences of such an increase in global temperatures would obviously be catastrophic, especially if we add to this the demographic development, which could reach 11 billion humans on Earth by the end of the century. Cities submerged under water, stagnant seas, extreme wildfires, unbearable heat waves and entire nations completely uninhabitablethe worst-case scenario is once again brought to mind in this study.

Similarly, the heatwave of 2003, which killed more than 15,000 people, could eventually become the norm. Especially since, until now, This scenario was not based on a temperature increase of 7 degrees Celsius, but on a rise of 4 degrees, according to figures from 2019In this context, the ecological transition seems all the more important.

  • Earth’s global temperature could rise by 5 to 7 degrees Celsius by 2100
  • The heatwave of 2003 (which caused thousands of deaths in France) would then become regular.
  • This new study is more pessimistic than the last IPCC report, which reported an increase of 4 degrees Celsius.

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