Weather and heatwave: where will we die of heat in France this summer?

The summer trends are clear: Meteo France has unveiled its forecast bulletin for the next three months which covers June, July and August. The public establishment announced “warmer than normal” conditions as the most likely for this summer in France. This forecast is aligned with that of the World Meteorological Organization which earlier this year suggested a new heat wave similar to previous years.

A very hot quarter

Météo-France specifies that the scenario of a quarter hotter than normal is the most likely for France with a greater probability for regions around the Mediterranean. These forecasts are probabilistic and not precise weather forecasts and the organization recalls that there is only a 50% chance of a summer hotter than normal in mainland France, a 30% chance of a summer consistent with normal and 20% chance of a colder summer.

In the Mediterranean basin, however, these probabilities rise to around 70% for a hotter summer, 20% for a compliant summer and 10% for a summer colder than seasonal norms. In other words, you will have to prepare for record temperatures in the south of France where the thermometer could exceed 40 degrees during the day.

That said, Météo-France wants to be reassuring and reminds that “parentheses” of freshness are never excluded either, as in the heart of summer 2023”. In its press release, the organization also specifies that “consistent with the global trend of climate change, summers are more frequently above seasonal norms, but heat episodes or heatwaves differ in terms of intensity, temporality and location from one summer to the next. ‘other”.

Less precipitation

Concerning precipitation, Météo-France anticipates that the South-West and the Mediterranean rim will probably be drier than normal. On the other hand, no clear trend is emerging for the rest of French territory.

Occasional episodes of locally significant rainfall cannot, however, be ruled out, as observed in recent months. In Corsica and the southern regions, there is a 25% chance for a wetter scenario than seasonal norms, 25% for a compliant scenario and 50% for a drier scenario.

Don’t panic

Météo-France warns against too hasty conclusions, stressing that it is “too early to predict this summer’s weather conditions week by week”. The bulletin aims to determine average trends over the quarter, with probabilistic forecast performance varying depending on location, season and the weather parameter concerned. Also, heatwaves “are well anticipated a few days in advance, hardly more than 8 days”.

Uncertainty hovers over scorching temperatures during the Olympic Games which will take place from July 26 to August 11 in Paris. Météo-France cannot yet establish specific forecasts for this period, but it will not fail to communicate again ahead of the global event.

You can find the full report from Météo France here.

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